Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-05 1.998647 2.116965 2.241328 2.382258 2.538100 2.705822 2.900866
2025-10-12 1.846390 2.012759 2.196159 2.415065 2.671573 2.965618 3.332662
2025-10-19 1.752184 1.947338 2.169582 2.444749 2.781145 3.185754 3.720188
2025-10-26 1.661972 1.873942 2.121344 2.436472 2.834930 3.333466 4.024474
2025-11-02 1.586774 1.810438 2.076846 2.424388 2.876782 3.462888 4.311858
2025-11-09 1.511788 1.741205 2.018957 2.388426 2.881103 3.538595 4.528391
2025-11-16 1.445933 1.678829 1.964778 2.351671 2.878729 3.601196 4.728408
2025-11-23 1.403166 1.642542 1.940684 2.351220 2.923167 3.729941 5.039099
2025-11-30 1.372778 1.619946 1.932189 2.369777 2.993495 3.899875 5.433727
2025-12-07 1.324547 1.571981 1.887739 2.335907 2.985465 3.950544 5.636966
2025-12-14 1.274443 1.519497 1.834789 2.286959 2.951407 3.957077 5.763221
2025-12-21 1.234343 1.478588 1.795474 2.254796 2.939467 3.996126 5.950374
2025-12-28 1.221323 1.473643 1.805292 2.294132 3.039580 4.226938 6.532916
2026-01-04 1.206692 1.465847 1.810648 2.326994 3.131793 4.454024 7.152576
2026-01-11 1.191416 1.456367 1.812897 2.354832 3.217349 4.677883 7.811795
2026-01-18 1.165696 1.431571 1.792388 2.347047 3.244013 4.799008 8.272399
2026-01-25 1.140454 1.406531 1.770432 2.335671 3.263450 4.908064 8.728098
2026-02-01 1.109807 1.373021 1.735075 2.301805 3.242471 4.938386 8.999296
2026-02-08 1.080556 1.340638 1.700257 2.267172 3.217885 4.959188 9.251343
2026-02-15 1.062864 1.323962 1.687648 2.266747 3.252284 5.099075 9.851065
2026-02-22 1.051197 1.315388 1.686485 2.284235 3.319065 5.311322 10.713819
2026-03-01 1.026318 1.287316 1.655549 2.252312 3.294906 5.331656 11.018419
2026-03-08 0.998593 1.254550 1.616745 2.206149 3.242300 5.286857 11.112864